I joined specifically to post this report because Will1988's message above helped me FINALLY solve my x300 belt breakage problem. I wanted to give back to the forum and help others having the same issue. Searches revealed lots of people having this issue but almost nobody mentioning the PTO clutch wear characteristic.
My x300 is a 2008 with the 42 inch Edge deck and it has just over 300 hours on it. I've owned it since new and store it in a clean barn. I have 3 acres, mow half of it as lawn, and the other half less often as pasture, sometimes letting it get 6 to 8 inches long before mowing. I bag the lawn areas once in the spring to get rid of heavy clippings, and once or twice in the fall to clear leaves. Most of the time I'm throwing. My first belt lasted over ten years. The second belt lasted several more, then two years ago i went through 2 belts in a season, and last year and this year I've been lucky to get three mowings out of a belt.
I've used OEM John Deere M154621 belts only. While the bolt clearance issue is close on mine, there is no evidence of any rubbing. The pulley alignment seems ok, and I've replaced spindles and one of the pulleys that had a bearing that was getting iffy. My belts were clearly failing in overload rather than due to obvious excessive rubbing, although the belt and pulleys get moderately hot. I couldn't figure it out until I read the post above mentioning the PTO getting grabby as it wears. It made me realize that blade engagement was slowing the motor down noticeably and the engagement definitely was more grabby that it used to be causing some shaking of the tractor.
I removed the PTO clutch (piece of cake - thanks Deere assemblers for using anti-sieze on the motor shaft) and took it apart using youtube videos for guidance. The clutch surfaces were definitely worn, but more importantly had scratchy looking fretting damage all over the contact surface. I ordered a new John Deere PTO clutch AM141536 ($200) and installed it. There was an obvious change to the feel and sound of the engagement. First, the engagement makes a Sssshhh sound for 1/2 second or so ("Oh yeah, I remember that sound now from years ago!"), the engine speed hardly drops at all, and NO tractor vibration with blade startup. So far so good. I will post again at the end of the mowing season to confirm the belt has not broken. .
So if you have the belt breakage issue, you've checked everything else, and your belts appear to be failing due to overload (a fairly clean break that almost always occurs when engaging the mower, with no evidence of rubbing), you don't hear an obvious Ssssshhhh (slipping) sound on PTO engagement, and you get a speed dip and tractor vibration on PTO engagement, I would highly suspect your PTO clutch is worn to the point where it is grabbing too hard and overloading the belt.
Thanks again Will1988.
Update October 17, 2020: Still on the same belt I installed when I replaced the electric mower clutch in June. I have mowed the 3 acres at least 8 times (stopping and starting the mower a few times with each mowing as needed), including two mowings while bagging which involves dozens of mower start-stop cycles due to emptying the bags. Replacing the PTO clutch definitely fixed the issue.