That looks like a likely suspect, especially if you've never adjusted the valves before. From the illustration I see rockers and valve lash adjustability, so I'd go right to that next since they're probably overdue for adjustment anyway. Best case scenario is you do routine maintenance and fix a big problem in one fell swoop.
Well good news and bad news. Good news is adjusting the valves did the trick. Bad news is I made about 3 laps around the yard and bam, abrupt engine shut off. Removed the valve cover and I now have a broken rocker arm and bent connecting rod on the intake. So the question is what to do next:
1) Order replacement valve kit and try and fix it.
2) Take it to a repair shop and let them fix it.
3) Buy a replacement engine and install.
4) Buy another riding lawnmower.
So I think it comes down to cost benefit. Let me know what you guys think.