Sounds like the axle is broke inside the tranny. If you have the rear wheels off the ground, can you turn the wheels independently? If yes internal damage and these trannies are not serviceable. I have seen it happen, but can’t remember the last time I replaced one.
Yes, the wheels spin independently and also spin equally with their axle shaft half.
Between the last time I mowed the grass up until on Thursday when I mowed last, I did nothing unusual, with the exception of add tension to the Personal Pace cable right before starting the mower up on Thursday, which was the first time I noticed that the mower wasn't tracking straight and was also losing traction on terrain as a result of only having 1 drive wheel receiving power.
I'm familiar with these mowers. I have replaced wheels THREE times and a transmission ONCE on my Father's 2009 Toro Recycler model 20333 (with blade clutch.) After that many replacement parts we sold that mower before anything else had the chance to fail again, I thought that was ludacris. That mower's plastic wheel gears were atrocious. I later found out that an aftermarket wheel with metal gear was available. Also the tire tread on that particular mower seemed to be made of a less durable material that wore out super quickly as well.
I also replaced the transmission and wheels both one time each thus far on my 2007 Toro Recycler model 20073 which I still have, and will begin using once again.
QUESTION TO CONSIDER - If the axle shaft IS broken inside of the Toro Super Bagger's differential housing, wouldn't the mower not move at all? Typically with an automotive differential that is fully OPEN and not locked or with limited slip, if an axle shaft breaks, since that axle shaft will have the least resistance, that is the side that will receive 100% of the power, rather than the opposite wheel. Why in this mower's configuration is the opposite wheel still receiving tractive power??